Model copes with chaos to deliver relief
Computer program helps responders transport
supplies in tough conditions
By Rachel Ehrenberg
Science News, Web edition: Monday, February 21st, 2011
WASHINGTON — Getting blood or other
perishable supplies to an area that’s been struck by
an earthquake or hurricane isn’t as simple as asking
what brown can do for you. But a new model quickly
determines the best routes and means for delivering
humanitarian aid, even in situations where bridges
are out or airport tarmacs are clogged with planes.
The research, presented February 18 at the
annual meeting of the American Association for the
Advancement of Science, could help get supplies to
areas which have experienced natural disasters or
help prepare for efficient distribution of vaccines when
the flu hits.
Efficient supply chains have long been a goal
of manufacturers, but transport in fragile networks
— where supply, demand and delivery routes may
be in extremely rapid flux — requires a different
approach, said Anna Nagurney of the University of
Massachusetts Amherst, who presented the new work.
Rather than considering the shortest path from one
place to another to maximize profit, her system aims
for the cleanest path at minimum cost, while capturing
factors such as the perishability of the product and
the uncertainty of supply routes. ‘You don’t know
where demand is, so it’s tricky,’ said Nagurney. ‘It’s a
multicriteria decision-making problem.’ By calculating the total cost associated with
each link in a network, accounting for congestion and
incorporating penalties for time and products that are
lost, the computer model calculates the best supply
chain in situations where standard routes may be
disrupted.
‘Mathematical tools are essential to develop
formal means to predict, and to respond to, such
critical perturbations,’ said Iain Couzin of Princeton
University, who uses similar computational tools to
study collective animal behavior. ‘This is particularly
important where response must be rapid and
effective, such as during disaster scenarios … or
during epidemics or breaches of national security. ’
The work can be applied to immediate, pressing
situations, such as getting blood, food or medication
to a disaster site, or to longer-term problems such as
determining the best locations for manufacturing flu
vaccines.
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Retrieved April 7th, 2011.