Predicting the unpredictable
Some years ago, a devastating earthquake struck the
Italian town of L’Aquila. More than 300 people lost
their lives, over 1,500 people were injured, and many
buildings were destroyed. Two years later, seven earthquake experts were involved in a court case: Did they
adequately warn the public after the initial tremors
began? At the heart of the debate is whether they
could have predicted a disaster like this.
Although a lot of scientists are working to improve
our ability to predict natural disasters, so far no
one has come up with a reliable method to forecast
earthquakes or volcanic eruptions, days or weeks
beforehand. Most of the research focuses on the areas
most likely to experience seismic activity – but even
our knowledge about where these areas are, is very
limited. One reason for this is that human beings have
only been around for a very small part of the Earth’s
history. In geological terms, we all arrived on the
scene very recently. Records from the past 2,000 years
are incomplete, and the biggest earthquakes nearly
always happen in areas where there have been no
earthquakes in recorded history.
So, is there any hope for improving our ability to
predict disasters? A solution may come from an
unexpected source. Four years ago, a team of US
physicists at Rutgers University in New Jersey were
studying why pharmaceutical powders stick together.
They observed that the powder stuck together when
placed in a spinning cylinder, but then developed
cracks and collapsed. Just before the cracks developed,
an electric signal, like a small bolt of lightning, was
created. The scientists repeated the experiment with a
wide range of different materials, and they got similar
results every time.
This phenomenon might also exist in nature. Some
scientists believe that rocks may become electrically
charged under unusual pressure, such as before an
earthquake. This electric charge then causes changes
in the surrounding air or water, which animals may be
able to sense before humans do. For example, while
biologists were studying a colony of frogs in a pond
near L’Aquila, they noticed that nearly all the animals
left the water days before the earthquake. A similar
thing happened in China, when snakes were hibernating for the winter in caves, but escaped just before a
large earthquake. The same kind of electric charge,
like the small bolt of lightning felt in the experiment at
Rutgers, may have been responsible.
At the moment, there is no reliable way ............ using such findings to predict earthquakes, and
further studies may be necessary to give us a better
understanding of the interactions involved, but one
day, the technology may be used ............ predict
future catastrophes. For example, two science institutions in Russia and Britain are already developing a
new micro-satellite, which could detect these electric
signals and help rescue people ................ natural
disasters in time. Scientists are planning to launch the
first of these satellites ............... space. Will these
satellites be the solution? Only time will tell. For the
time being, the best defense is to be prepared.