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Manufacturing dips as container outlook slides
The NEOI fell to 48.9 in August from 49.6 in July,
indicating deteriorating trade conditions for the third
consecutive month. Traded goods slowed in both
developed and emerging markets, but India maintained a
modest growth in goods exports during August, the last
month for which figures are available.
In addition, the global PMI has shown a contraction of
manufacturing, signalling a further deterioration in cargo
levels in the immediate future.
"China's goods exports fell for the first time in 2024,
signalling a broader decline in manufacturing as the year
progresses," said global freight forwarder Dimerco.
Headquartered in Taiwan, the Taipei-listed forwarder said
that the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut may
revive global goods trade.
August trading in the US continued to grow amid
concerns about a US East Coast strike, and a November
election that could see major import tariffs imposed on
goods, said Dimerco.
"The early peak season suggests an earlier-than-usual
start to the slow season, with expected declines in
handling volume from September to December, projected
at 2.31m, 2.08m, 1.92m, and 1.89m teu, respectively. If
these forecasts hold, total port volume for 2024 could
reach 24.98m teu, a 12% increase from 2023," said Alvin
Fuh, VP - ocean freight at Dimerco Express Group.
Dynamar analyst Darron Wadey, said: "Approaching 470
vessels bringing around 3.2m teu in capacity are
expected to be delivered by the end of 2024."
That massive increase in capacity, and the fact that much
of this increase is for larger sized vessels, means that
any correction in freight rates should have started up to a
year ago, according to Wadey.
"It is only the happenstance of the Red Sea and US East
Coast situations that have, artificially, buoyed the
markets. When the markets do correct therefore, the falls
will only be more dramatic because the inevitable has
been delayed whilst the stream of new ships coming
online continues," said Wadey.
Drewry Shipping Consultants' analysis shows that blank
sailings are expected to increase between 9 September
and 7 October with an additional 53 blanked sailings,
totalling 90 for the period. Some 67% of these cancelled
services were on the Pacific eastbound, while a further
21% on the Asia to Europe trades and 12% on the
Atlantic.
Even with these cancelled services, rates are continuing
to fall on all the major trades, according to Dimerco.
New entrants are said to be another element to failure of
lines to maintain rate levels.
"While the three major alliances are increasing blank
sailings, several individual carriers have deployed 11
extra vessels for Europe WB and 14 for TPEB to handle
the expected cargo surge before China's Golden Week.
However, the anticipated pre-October 1 cargo rush in
China did not materialise this year, leaving no backlogs
or rollover cargo for these extra loaders to transport,"
said Dimerco's monthly analysis.
Rebalancing trade can only be achieved through the
long-term and steady growth of trade, said Wadey,
combined with "a strategic rather than knee-jerk ship
ordering policy". These required shifts are generational,
he said, "in the short term, political events in the US
might lead to an end-2024 rush for cargoes again... but
then where does that leave 2025 and beyond?"
Drewry's WCI index fell a further 7% this week, closing at
$3,691/feu.
https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/containers/manufacturing-dips-as-container-outlook-slides